Elo, Klassifikation und Poisson-Tore

Modell

elo-logreg-poisson-v1

Features

home_elo
away_elo
elo_diff
home_avg_goals_for_last5
home_avg_goals_against_last5
away_avg_goals_for_last5
away_avg_goals_against_last5
home_wins_last5
home_draws_last5
home_losses_last5
away_wins_last5
away_draws_last5
away_losses_last5
home_tournament_experience
away_tournament_experience
home_knockout_games
away_knockout_games
home_titles_before
away_titles_before
head_to_head_matches
head_to_head_home_goals
head_to_head_away_goals
is_knockout
is_group_match
home_host
away_host
home_reigning_champion
away_reigning_champion
home_rest_days
away_rest_days
tournament_year
external_home_elo
external_away_elo
external_elo_diff
external_home_matches
external_away_matches
external_home_recent_goals_for
external_home_recent_goals_against
external_away_recent_goals_for
external_away_recent_goals_against
external_home_recent_wins
external_home_recent_draws
external_home_recent_losses
external_away_recent_wins
external_away_recent_draws
external_away_recent_losses
external_head_to_head_matches
external_head_to_head_home_goals
external_head_to_head_away_goals
external_home_days_since_match
external_away_days_since_match
fifa_home_points
fifa_away_points
fifa_points_diff
fifa_home_rank
fifa_away_rank
fifa_rank_diff
fifa_home_ranking_age_days
fifa_away_ranking_age_days
context_home_population
context_away_population
context_log_population_diff
context_home_area
context_away_area
context_log_area_diff
context_home_gdp
context_away_gdp
context_log_gdp_diff
context_home_gdp_per_capita
context_away_gdp_per_capita
context_log_gdp_per_capita_diff
context_home_latitude
context_away_latitude
context_home_longitude
context_away_longitude
context_team_distance_km
context_home_distance_to_host_km
context_away_distance_to_host_km
context_host_distance_diff
context_same_region
context_same_subregion
context_home_same_region_as_host
context_away_same_region_as_host
context_home_bordering_host
context_away_bordering_host
context_home_world_bank_age_years
context_away_world_bank_age_years

Grenzen

Das Zielmodell wird weiterhin auf echten WM-Spielen der Maenner bewertet; externe Laenderspiele, Rankings und Laenderkontext dienen als Zusatzfeatures.
Keine Prognose ist eine sichere Vorhersage.
Kommende Spiele werden nur angezeigt, wenn sie aus einer echten Datenquelle geladen wurden.
Mehr Daten verbessern die Grundlage, garantieren aber keine hohe Modell-Sicherheit.

Metriken

Metrik	Wert	Details
accuracy	0.7188
balanced_accuracy	0.5826
brier_score	0.4367
calibration	-	`{'expected_calibration_error': 0.17714032499126067, 'bins': [{'lower': 0.2, 'upper': 0.4, 'accuracy': 0.4, 'confidence': 0.37511461643177546}, {'lower': 0.4, 'upper': 0.6000000000000001, 'accuracy': 0.631578947368421, 'confidence': 0.4973334967650436}, {'lower': 0.6000000000000001, 'upper': 0.8, 'accuracy': 0.9523809523809523, 'confidence': 0.6613701543489895}]}`
confusion_matrix	-	`{'labels': ['H', 'D', 'A'], 'matrix': [[28, 0, 4], [8, 1, 1], [5, 0, 17]]}`
elo_baseline_accuracy	0.5781
goal_mae	0.7682
log_loss	0.7656
majority_baseline_accuracy	0.5000
poisson_baseline_mae	1.0035
selected_classifier	-	`{'value': 'calibrated_logistic_regression'}`
training_end_year	2026.0000
training_rows	804.0000
training_start_year	1986.0000
validation	-	`{'accuracy': 0.671875, 'balanced_accuracy': 0.5293040293040293, 'log_loss': 0.8060384148166747, 'brier_score': 0.46529085643198326}`